Public relations and media expert Norman Birnbach, President of Birnbach Communications, Inc., was kind enough to take the time to discuss media trends in 201i. He describes what is happening with radio, television, newspapers, magazines, and online media. He also shares a few surprising trends that will be appearing in 2010 as well. Norman also blogs at the popular and highly regarded public relations blog PR Back Talk.
Thanks to Norman Birnbach for his time, and for his intriguing forecasts in the fascinating field of media.
What was the background to your creating this annual series of public relations predictions?
When we started Birnbach Communications a decade ago, we realized there was a missing element from a few clients' marketing plans. They did a great job in capturing key issues from within the company but needed the context of the world outside -- that is, the trends and issues that were being covered by the media. We began issuing an annual list of predictions to help our clients more effectively understand and engage on topics of interest for traditional and now social media.
How successful were the forecasts you made for 2010?
We hit most of our predictions, including our major prediction that last year would be the year of online subscriptions. Very soon afterwards, publishers like the New York Times, Hulu.com, Boston Globe, the Times of London and others began announcing that they would be establishing online subscription access to their content. We were right that print journalism would see a better year – true, 10 papers shut down in 2010, but that's a drop in the bucket compared to the 109 that shut down in 2009.
We were right that the iPad would be one of the biggest stories of the year – which in hindsight was not a risky prediction; but at the time, there was a lot of skepticism about why people would need and buy iPads – plus a lot of people mocked the name, iPad. We did predict a battle between Android vs. the iPhone but did not expect that Android would outsell the iPhone. We predicted the media would focus on corporate battles like Google vs. Apple vs. Microsoft and EMC vs. HP vs. Oracle. We were right about Google vs. Apple, but we did not anticipate Oracle vs. SAP or Cisco vs. H-P. Overall, I'd give us an A/A-.
Social media use and rules are evolving very rapidly. Will this trend continue or even accelerate in 2011?
What's startling is how quickly people have adjusted to social media, now the #1 activity on the Web. It took radio 38 years to reach 50 million users, TV just 13 years. Yet it took Facebook less than nine months to add 100 million users. The platforms and the rules will continue to change rapidly. So much of that change is driven by new functionality and some by evolving business models. Take Twitter, for instance. An entire ecosystem of companies have popped up to offer services that Twitter didn't deliver at first, but as Twitter has evolved, it's added some of those features, That's one form of rapid evolution. This rapid change can be overwhelming, but it also presents an opportunity for companies that are social media newbies to jump in, and catch up quickly. After all, many companies are still taking social media baby steps.
How will the corporate use of social media be judged for success in 2011?
Companies will be judged on several criteria, including the quality of their social media engagement, their frequency and use of multimedia elements. Assuming the quality is there, it will be important for companies to post on a regular basis – not just once a month. The fact is that people assume a company has gone out of business or is in a downward spiral if it hasn't issued a release or otherwise updated its website in a matter of months. But in 2011, people will now assume your organization has gone out of business or that you have left your job if you haven't posted or updated your blog or status in a month. To keep brands and images relevant, social media content needs to be a consistent drumbeat, rather than an occasional dribble of information.
Are the reports of the death of the traditional press release still premature?
I recently moderated a panel on social media and public relations, and some of the panelists, who were either reporters or bloggers, gleefully declared that the press release was dead. I respectfully think they're wrong. Now news embargoes may be dead, but the press release continues to serve a purpose. There are other ways to communicate the news – such as making an announcement via Twitter or Facebook. However, press releases can still provide value and be effective in 2011, if only by enabling organizations to post fresh evidence of corporate activity and providing search engine optimization (SEO) opportunities.
Norman Birnbach (photo left)
Will traditional media find its footing from which to operate effectively?
Yes. This year, traditional media will move to stable, if fragile, footing. The worst may be behind them, based on the reduced number of traditional newspapers and magazines that have either shut down or shifted to an online-only business model in 2010 as compared to the prior two years. But the old ways of doing business won't survive the "new normal." Even with a recovery, media properties will never again see revenue at the 2007 pre-recession levels -- unless they innovate and find more ways to generate revenue aside from traditional ad sales. That means finding a way to charge for online content on the revenue side. That also means fewer staff and resources, perpetual deadlines and multichannel content.
Will we see more live real time integrated and interactive multimedia events in 2011?
They won't replace what we used to call "TV shows" in 2011, but we will see more of these events. But that's because we may not be watching on a TV. The cable channel Bravo already actively elicits people to post comments about its shows while the programs are airing – and they're seeing a strong response, more enthusiastic connections and interactions, which is something advertisers like. You won't be limited to just voting for a contestant on a reality show; you can also comment on everything about the show. Hate Ryan Seacrest? Now you can let everyone know. The difference is that in 2010, you had to comment on Twitter or Facebook. In 2011, you'll be able to comment next to the action, and be able to interact with others on one screen as opposed to watching your TV and typing away on your computer.
Are there any changes in the fashionable words and jargon that you expect to happen in 2011?
Hybrid will be the overused word of the year, followed by mashup and curation. We're seeing that hybrid no longer is relegated to plants or cars. It can mean anything that deploys a two-part solution, like one that offers a cloud-based solution, which stores data offsite, along with a way to store data onsite. On the other hand, mashups can be used to describe anything that combines elements of two different things, like two songs (as on "Glee"), or two kinds of data – such as overlaying crime statistics on top of Google Maps. Meanwhile, as used in 2011, curation does not have anything to do with healing. Curation generally refers to the concept of a website that offers information selected and maintained by an actual human (who might be known as a curator if this were a museum), not by an algorithm. In newspaper circles, this person used to be called "editor" – so curation is a back-to-the-future concept.
What will be some of the big technology stories to watch for in 2011?
The biggest will be the battle between the iPad and the iPad Killers. The media will also look at the impact of tablet computing on the PC market. (Anyone remember netbooks?) The media will look at the success and valuations of Groupon and Twitter and Facebook, and whether and when they will go public. The status of Facebook, its policy towards privacy, and the demise of MySpace. (Last year, it was Twitter's business model – which has yet to be fully answered.) Of course, the media will also cover the state of the media, especially print media, online-only business models and online subscriptions. The media – traditional and online can't help but cover itself.
Which trends that emerged in 2010 will continue or increase in 2011?
Location-based services and behavioral targeting by advertisers and personalization will be important. Online privacy will continue to be important. The continued growth of e-books and e-readers will lead to talk about the inevitability of the demise of paper-based book. (The one exception will be children's books, especially pop-up books – to be known as 3-D books.) The media will continue to focus on the latest smartphones and digital cameras.
What is next for Norman Birnbach in 2011?
As an agency, we'll be offering more and richer social media services, including enhanced advocacy programs. And I'll continue to comment on the state of the media, social media and the communications industry on my blog, PR Back Talk (blog.birnbachcom.com).
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